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It was eight weeks prior that Morgan Rogers found himself on the Sunderland turf, looking confused while his coach scolded him over not reading a pass in behind. During that period, with the team went six without a win, it wasn't clear whether his performances were a symptom or a cause for the team's more general malaise.

“Following Rogers' second strike… Emery discarded his jacket, extended his arms, and let out a triumphant roar.”

This weekend, though, the sideline response was much more joyous. As the in-form star drilled in his second to restore the lead for Villa, Emery ripped off his winter coat, opened his arms and roared. The Birmingham club marched on to ten wins in a row and after failing to win their opening six matches, are somehow a mere three points off the leaders Arsenal.

Are They Serious Challengers?

This is a particularly tough proposition to address. Past precedent, a general sense of this institution, argues against it. Additionally, their performances haven't been entirely convincing in many games, even as the victories have accumulated.

Per the data, in only two games has the side posted an xG significantly higher than the other team. For a team which has strung together a ten-match winning streak, they seem strangely fragile – however currently the tight outcomes are swinging for them.

The Winning Formula

The prevailing tactic appears to be to engage in a shootout with an opponent before hoping their star man to bail them out with some crisp finishes. This was the case against Leeds, it happened at West Ham, and once more when facing United.

The initial strike originated from a brilliant finish, curled right inside the upright from a wide position. His brace-completing goal was essentially a somewhat messier replica of his first as he seized on a setup by his strike partner.

“Perhaps Rogers’ right foot is becoming like Arjen Robben’s left: just because you know he’s going to whip the ball into the top corner doesn’t mean you can stop him.”

How Long Can This Continue?

Logic says not. During the latest victory, the opposition managed a greater number of attempts and more efforts on goal. The team has secured their last eight victories by the narrowest of margins. The defence has been breached in all except one of those matches.

Regression to the mean might be the greatest opponent the club have to face in the near future. Rogers, almost certainly, will not continue to thrashing the football past despairing goalkeepers indefinitely.

A Case for Belief

Maybe there exists an alternative path whereby, instead of luck running out, the level of play rises to match the results. Key players could still return to peak condition.

• The centre-forward might resume scoring again.
• The attacking talent may rediscover the player he showed at Borussia Dortmund.
• Tyrone Mings and Pau Torres will eventually return from injury, fortifying a sometimes shaky backline.

Perhaps there is in that the possibility of a title challenge, yet it seems unlikely can persist in leaning entirely on a single individual.

Savoring the Moment

However, this was unforeseen. Nobody thought Villa would be third at Christmas. And certainly earlier this season, no one envisioned Rogers by the end of the year would be leading a championship pursuit while looking like a crucial Three Lions star.

This remarkable period should be enjoyed precisely because it appears so improbable. When Rogers stood in front of the home supporters when the game ended orchestrating the applause, he seemed to be thoroughly enjoying it. A feeling he has rightly earned. Such periods are uncommon in the sport and should be relished.